US Politics | Does a Primary Challenger Spell Trouble for Trump?

While the news continues to focus on the widening Democratic field of candidates running for president, on the right the number has also grown. If a challenger can successfully divide the Republican party, history tells us that this could ultimately spell doom for President Trump’s reelection. 

Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld announced his bid for the Republican ticket way back in April 2019. Not many noticed then, but two more challengers subsequently threw their hats into the ring. On August 25, former Representative Joe Walsh (R-IL) declared his candidacy. Two weeks later, former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford announced his (though he’s already dropped out after only 65 days in the melee). 

Though Trump’s approval rating hit a new low among fellow Republicans earlier this month, it remains at 74%, making it highly unlikely that any of these candidates can beat him in the primaries. But if he faces a serious opponent in the primaries, it could potentially signal trouble for him in the general election. 

Circling the Wagons

Whatever the outcome of the House’s current impeachment inquiry, the political pressure to stand with the president is increasingly felt by Republican politicians and voters alike. In January 2019, the Republican National Committee (RNC) passed a resolution to pledge its support to Donald Trump, but stopped short of re-nominating him as its presidential candidate going into the 2020 election. While RNC rules do allow for the possibility of a challenger to emerge if any candidate can garner support from a majority of delegates in at least five states, the party itself has made a potential challenge even more difficult. The Trump reelection campaign (which, in an unprecedented move late last year merged its field and fundraising programs with those of the RNC) has pushed for cancelling primaries in several states, which would secure all of the delegate votes in those states for the president. But would-be challengers and “Never Trumper” Republicans have protested vehemently, some even going so far as to say the RNC is rigging the election. 

Walsh told Politico that "Trump and his allies and the Republican National Committee [RNC] are doing whatever they can do to eliminate primaries in certain states and make it very difficult for primary challengers to get on the ballot in a number of states. It’s wrong, the RNC should be ashamed of itself, and I think it does show that Trump is afraid of a serious primary challenge because he knows his support is very soft.”  

While it is not unheard of for the party of an incumbent seeking reelection to cancel a primary, critics view the recent cancellations in conjunction with other efforts to stamp out dissent among fellow Republicans as yet another example of just how far Trump allies will go to eliminate any traces of opposition that could potentially embarrass him at the convention in Charlotte next year.

As a result of this perceived stone-walling by the establishment, little has been heard about Weld, Walsh or Sanford. They have not received nearly as much media coverage as their Democratic counterparts. Additionally, they have had to rely on small venues for debates. In September Weld and Walsh faced off in a two-man debate, then the three faced off in an October debate. Of note, Weld did participate in the MSNBC’s Climate Forum 2020 at Georgetown University, which was open to all candidates regardless of party. Unsurprisingly, Trump has declined the invitations for these events. 

With a strong and steady approval rating from his base throughout his presidency (which, according to a poll from The Washington Post and ABC News is at 74%), it would hardly seem worth the effort at stifling out dissent from these challengers who together only garner between 5% and 8% support from fellow Republicans. So, why, then, work so fastidiously at blocking them at every turn?

It’s been 27 years since an incumbent last faced a serious challenger in the primary. While the first primary was held in 1912, the primary system as we use it today has actually only been around for about 50 years. In that time six sitting presidents have had a primary challenger but only one was able to come out the other side of it to win the presidency again.

Lyndon B. Johnson and Eugene McCarthy, Robert F Kennedy, 1968

Just four years earlier, in 1964 Lyndon B. Johnson won the election in a landslide with 61.9% of the popular vote. But by 1968, things had changed. Despite the growing unpopularity of the Vietnam War, Johnson was the front-runner until Senator Eugene McCarthy (D-MN) challenged him in the New Hampshire primary running as an anti-war candidate. McCarthy won an impressive 42% of the primary vote to Johnson’s 49%. Shortly thereafter Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY) announced his candidacy and Johnson withdrew his, throwing his support behind Vice President Hubert Humphrey. The party was deeply divided going into the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago, and the chaos that ensued prompted the formation of the McGovern-Fraser Commission which, through a series of reforms, ushered in the modern process we know today. In the election that year, incumbent Vice President Humphrey (42.72%*) lost to Richard Nixon (R) (43.42%).

Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan, 1976

President Gerald Ford was challenged by former Governor of California Ronald Reagan in the Republican primaries. It was a battle to the end; both men were popular and Ford only defeated Reagan by a narrow margin to win the nomination of his party. In the election Ford (48.02%) lost to Democratic candidate Jimmy Carter (50.08%).

Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy, 1980

Encouraged by President Jimmy Carter’s weak ratings in the polls, Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) launched his campaign against the incumbent. Carter won 24 of the primaries, and Kennedy won only 10, but Kennedy continued to campaign hoping for an upset at the national convention. Kennedy did finally withdraw, leaving the path clear for Carter’s nomination, but neither he nor his supporters got behind the president in the election and Carter (41.01%) ultimately lost the election to Republican candidate Ronald Reagan (50.75%).

George H. W. Bush and Pat Buchanan, 1992

Having lost the support of conservatives in his party because of a lagging economy and a broken campaign promise not to raise taxes (remember “Read my lips, no new taxes”?), President George H. W. Bush was challenged by conservative Pat Buchanan in the primaries. Though Bush easily won the nomination, the push from the conservative wing of the Republican party forced him farther to the right than he had been in the previous election leaving moderates in his party feeling disaffected. Ultimately, Bush (37.45%) lost his bid for reelection to Bill Clinton (D) (43.01%).

The Exception, 1972

The only exception to this “rule” in the last 50 years was in 1972 when Representative Pete McCloskey from California and Representative John Ashbrook from Ohio both challenged President Richard Nixon in the primaries. But Nixon’s popularity allowed him to easily win his party’s nomination and carried him through to win the election (60.67%) against Democratic candidate George McGovern (37.52%).

So, what was different in 1972? There were many, but one big difference is the support that the candidates had within their parties. Unlike Johnson, Ford, Carter and Bush, Nixon was widely popular with his base holding approval ratings above 80% in the run-up to the 1972 general election, whereas the other incumbents that faced primary challengers didn’t enjoy nearly as much support from their constituents. So far, Trump’s popularity among Republicans remains steady as well. 

While many believe that a challenger weakens the sitting president in his bid for reelection, just looking at the number of times an incumbent has succeeded in this scenario (one in six) is a look at only one piece of the puzzle. For now—unless a larger name Republican takes up the challenge against Trump—it seems unlikely that any of the current candidates will make any difference at all.  

Speculation over a challenge from John Kasich, Jeff Flake or even Mitt Romney are just that—speculation. They have stated multiple times that they will not run, and Trump’s overwhelming support among Republicans remains a strong disincentive to even consider running. However, if the Trump campaign does face a real contender in the primary that can split the party, that could be some good news for those hoping to see a blue wave in 2020. 

*All numbers for election results refer to the popular vote, and not the electoral vote.

This article is part of our new series on US politics, where we delve deep into the issues defining the land of the free in the run-up to next year’s crucial election. Keep an eye out for real insight into the defining issues of our times, brought to you from members of the Barcelona chapter of Democrats Abroad, a coalition of American expats with the goal of mobilizing the overseas vote.

Harry Edelman is a contributor to the Barcelona Metropolitan covering American political topics. He recently received a M.P.S. in Emergency and Disaster Management from the Georgetown University. He previously served as a logistics officer for the US Army stationed in Germany. He is now working as the Director for Youth Outreach focusing on voter engagement and participation for the Barcelona Chapter of Democrats Abroad.