European Union Election Preview

The European Parliamentary elections are not usually a grand event. They tend to be derided as elections to a “talking shop” that has no real legislative power, and turnout has been consistently decreasing since their inception in 1979. In 2019, however, the elections are center stage and in the spotlight, more so than they have ever been, perhaps. With far-right populists cementing their footholds across Europe, Trump’s anti-EU rhetoric growing ever more pernicious and the spectre of Russian interference looming large, the existential threats that the European Union faces all seem to be coming to head at once. Throw into that cocktail the chaos caused by Brexit and it’s easy to see why European internationalists are framing these elections as the most important in the EU’s history.

But what is the European Parliament? And what are these “existential threats” to the union? And just why do these elections matter so very much?

What Is the European Parliament?

The European Parliament (EP) is one of the seven institutions that make up the EU. The primary role for its MEPs (Ministers of the European Parliament) is to vote on whether laws and proposals should be passed to become EU doctrine. As an elected body (unlike the European Commission), the EP elections are therefore the main democratic mandate on which the EU functions.

Of the six other governing bodies that make up the EU, the most significant is probably the European Commission (EC). The EC basically runs the show day-to-day by proposing laws for the EP to vote on, and subsequently ensuring those laws are implemented. While the EP lacks the power to initiate directives, propose laws and therefore set the EU’s agenda—this is the role of the EC—its ability to veto or pass said laws makes it a significant democratic body.

The EP also lacks certain legislative powers on things like tax and foreign policy. These important decisions must be ratified by the European Council, another vital EU institution made up of the 28 European heads of state.

The MEPs who sit in the EP, as in any other parliament, divide themselves into a number of different political groups—in this case trans-national political coalitions that unite MEPs from different countries based on their broad political outlook. The largest blocs include the European People’s Party, a center-right coalition similar in outlook to the PP here in Spain, and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, its center-left equivalent.

However, outside of this there are various other blocs vying for their own views to be heard—be they environmental, nationalist or even anti-EU. It is the latter of these who European internationalists fear will disrupt the pro-European status quo, and it is looking like they are going to make gains throughout the continent this year.

Elections to the EP are held every 5 years, defining the parliament’s, and to some extent the EU’s, outlook for the following half decade. With 347 million Europeans eligible to vote in 2019, including EU expats living outside their native countries, these elections are the second largest democratic exercise in the world (after India’s general elections, which are presently ongoing).

Why Are These Elections so Important?

The 2019 elections are being set up as the most important in the EU’s history. Not only is there a genuine threat to the EU from foreign powers like Russia and China, but Trump’s ongoing trade war and “America First” policies are equally hostile to the European project. Furthermore, there are parties within the EU that are seeking to undermine it, and they have never been so confident coming into an election. Indeed, some polls put anti-Europeans on course to win up to one-third of seats in these elections, so the stakes are unusually high.

The Far Right Populists

The European Parliament has, like the European Commission and Council, been dominated by a broad alliance of traditionally centrist parties since its inception. What makes the 2019 elections so significant is that various polls and sources suggest that this leading coalition is set lose its ruling majority.

Things like the 2008 financial crash, subsequent economic austerity and the vast influx of migrants and refugees settling in all corners of Europe over the past five years have fueled nationalist movements from the UK to Hungary. Far right groups have become emboldened, amassing significant numbers of votes through their divisive rhetoric.

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán is perhaps the most well known, and indeed the most sinister, of these far-right populists. His authoritarian tendencies, direct calls for “illiberal democracy” and fervent anti-EU stance are plain for all to see, and have been allowed to fester within the borders of the union itself. Similarly, Matteo Salvini, leader of Italy’s Northern League, has risen to genuine prominence in his native parliament. At a European level, he is attempting to style himself as the continent’s “populist in chief,” and he plans to form a pan-European right wing alliance to disrupt the workings of the union following these elections.

From Marine le Pen’s Rassemblement National in France to Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland, it seems no EU country is immune to far-right populism, not even Spain…

Vox’s expansion from a small Andalusian group to a party recognized as a force at a national level has been followed keenly throughout Europe; it is seen as yet more evidence of a turning of the electoral tides. While Vox’s vote share was not as great as some expected, the fact is their electoral success represents the first time a far-right party has entered the Spanish parliament since Franco’s death in 1975, representing a disturbing larger trend. The worry for European progressives is that they will do even better in the upcoming EU elections.

All this being said, while the threat these groups pose to European project is significant, and their ability to disrupt the EU’s workings should not be underestimated, their deep rooted ideological divides and inherent nationalism means the formation of a truly united, pan-European far-right force working as one in any meaningful, sustained way is pretty unlikely. But their effects at a national level, particularly in Britain, will certainly be much more severe.

Brexit Britain

It says a lot on its own that Britain is actually involved in the upcoming elections. The UK was meant to have left the EU on March 29 of this year, but that didn’t quite go to plan, did it? Thus, Britain is forced to take part in the EP elections, and the vote is being viewed as a proxy for a possible second referendum, and simultaneously a thermometer for a general election, which is probably just around the corner.

All polls suggest this vote is going to be a monumental loss for the UK’s governing Conservative Party, given its inability to deliver Brexit, something its constituents crave vociferously. Equally, the Labour oppositions’ obfuscation on Brexit—its leader Jeremy Corbyn is a dyed in the wool Eurosceptic—means it too could lose out significantly, given its base is vehemently pro-remain. While both leaders of the main parties will attempt to bluster their way through what is sure to be a poor showing, these elections will likely lay bare the rot that has set it in at the heart of the UK’s major parties.

In the wake of the Tories and Labour, one new party is emerging as an electoral force. The Brexit Party is likely to win the most votes on May 23—its crystal clear pro-Brexit message (even if it comes without any real policies) drawing in a huge amount of the leave vote. On the remain side, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are surging in the polls, alongside the slightly less successful, newly formed party Change UK. While the pro-EU remain vote is split, they will probably take home a similar percentage to the Brexit party, meaning the deadlocked 52%-48% split of the 2016 referendum endures.

Spain Focus

In Spain, the European elections will take place on May 26, the same day as the local elections. As such, politicians have been focusing on national and local issues, and it is likely that most voters will opt for the same parties they voted for in the recent general election.

May has been a month of multiple elections in Spain, and it is likely that Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE will come out the victors on all fronts. Polls predict a victory for the socialists and a similar weakening of the PP in a fragmented vote, with Vox entering the fray in much the same way they did at a national level.

Given the vote is taking place on the same day as local elections, the independence crisis will again be at the heart of the debate in Catalunya. Both the leaders of Junts per Catalunya—Carles Puigdemont—and Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya—Oriol Junqueras—will top the lists of their respective parties in the European elections, despite the former being in exile in Brussels and the latter being in prison in Madrid. While they have both been allowed to stand in the elections, it remains to be seen whether either of them would be allowed to take office following a victory.

Voting in Spain

The deadline for EU residents to register to vote in these elections as a Spanish resident has already passed, but those who have registered can find the various lists of candidates, their European party affiliations and other information here. For information on what to do on polling day, see the end of this Barcelona Metropolitan article.

EU nationals have the right to vote in EU elections in either their host country or their home country. This means that if you haven’t registered to vote in Spain you may still have the opportunity to vote in your home country for the candidates standing for election there. If this is the case for you, the European Union’s website can help guide you through your options.

Harry Stott is a regular contributor to the Barcelona Metropolitan covering Brexit, local political and social issues as well as the music scene. He recently received a B.A. in music from the University of Leeds, and now writes and produces radio content for a number of organizations in Barcelona and beyond. You can read more of Harry's articles here.