What Do Spain’s 2019 General Election Results Mean?

On April 28, with an impressive turnout of 75.79%, Spanish voters went to the polls for the 2019 general election to the Congress of Deputies of the Kingdom of Spain. Coming into the election, polls suggested that Pedro Sánchez, the incumbent prime minister and leader of the Socialist Party (PSOE), would likely get the highest vote share. But, two unresolved questions still remained: Would the PSOE be able to govern in coalition with only the support of Podemos? Or, would it need the help of Catalan and Basque nationalists too? There was also another important question to decipher: Would the Spanish right—PP, Ciudadanos and Vox—gather enough deputies to repeat their Andalusian successes and create a stable government?

At the edge of midnight and with 99.8% of votes counted everything was decided: Pedro Sánchez, the candidate of the Socialist Party, was the big winner of the night, procuring 123 seats in the Spanish Parliament, nearly double that of Pablo Casado—leader of the Popular Party (PP)—who came in second. Furthermore, PSOE’s leader was able to rejoice twice over, as the final result of the vote confirmed that the right did not have enough votes among them to form a coalition, meaning only the Socialist leader had the ability to form a government.

On the other hand, the PP was the big loser of the night; it lost more than half of its seats, down to 66 deputies from 137 in the last election. Its was the worst result for the former reigning party in recent memory—only eight years ago the PP exceeded the minimum 176 seats need for an absolute majority winning a whooping 186 seats.

Yet more bad news for Casado and his party is the continued rise of Ciudadanos. Picking up 25 seats for a total of 57, the party of Albert Rivera is now only nine seats behind the PP in the Congress of Deputies, so there is a clear dispute for the leadership of Spain’s center-right bloc. This struggle is sure to be intensified in the upcoming European, regional and municipal elections, which take place on May 26th.

The other great defeat of the night was Pablo Iglesias and his party Unidas Podemos, who lost 29 deputies—down from 71 to 42. However, victory could soon be snatched from the jaws of defeat, as Podemos still retains the possibility of entering into a coalition government with the PSOE. If that does indeed happen, it will be the first time since Spain transitioned to democracy in 1978 that the Congress of Deputies will have representatives to the ideological left of PSOE.

Another piece of news highlighted by the election was the entrance of Vox into the Spanish Parliament, winning 24 seats (which represents just over 10% of the vote). Although those affiliated with Santiago Abascal’s party expected a heftier result, the leaders of the political party have called their election results epic. And momentous they are, signalling the first time a far-right party has won a single seat in the Spanish Parliament since the return to democracy.

While both the left and right blocs received similar support, obtaining nearly 43% each, the fragmentation of the right into three groups with only 147 seats among them is far from the 176 seats required by electoral law to govern with an absolute majority. On the other hand, the concentrated vote for PSOE along with Podemos’ votes results in 165 deputies, which, with the help of the Catalan and Basque nationalists, makes it possible for the left to form a stable government.

What Next?

President Sánchez has already expressed his intention to govern alone, so he is only looking for an investiture pact that allows for a socialist government. For its part, the Spanish employers' association (Confederación Española de Organizaciones Empresariales—CEOE) has expressed its desire for a government between the PSOE and Ciudadanos, a feasible sum that would give a stable executive, although it should be noted that the relationship between Rivera and Sanchez is especially bad, so it would probably be prudent to discard this option for now.

On the other hand, Podemos’ Pablo Iglesias has commented that he hopes to be able to enter the Sánchez executive and place several deputies of his selection in a coalition government. This is not Sanchez’s desired option, but it has not been ruled out either, so it seems the most probable outcome.

Another bit of important news in the elections to the Spanish parliament was the victory of the Catalan Republican Left (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya—ERC) in Catalunya. The dispute between Catalunya’s separatist formations—the supporters of Carles Puigdemont (Junts per Catalunya) against those of Oriol Junqueras (ERC)—resulted in victory for the Republicans, achieving a historic result of 15 seats to become a key player in the future government of the Kingdom of Spain.

Notwithstanding ERC’s impressive advances in Spanish parliament, at the general election voters in Catalunya delivered a significant blow to the independence movement; in Catalunya overall support for the independence movement actually decreased at the voting booths. Historically, Catalans vote differently depending on whether elections are for regional versus national positions. Comparisons from one election to the next can be tricky. However, what is evident is that even within Catalunya separatists have lost ground to Catalan voters in favor of a unified Spain, indeed a latest poll indicates constitutionalists have a ten point lead over independentists.

The upcoming municipal and European elections will surely influence the landscape of Spanish politics at the national level as well. We will soon witness how strong support for Catalan independence, and indeed support for anti-EU parties like Vox, manifest themselves. These factors will likely enter into the complex equation of forming a coalition government.

It’s time to vote—who will you support?