This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.
An Aliança Catalana rally in Fossar de les Moreres square, Barcelona, on September 10, 2025. Photo by Aniol (CC0) via Wikimedia Commons.
Catalan politics are now, it seems, a far cry from 2017’s infamous, unauthorized independence referendum. It was violently repressed by national police forces, led to widespread rioting, triggered a constitutional crisis in Spain, and saw leaders like Carles Puigdemont flee the country.
The 2024 regional elections were a stark contrast. For over a decade, Catalunya had been governed by pro-independence parties—either Puigdemont’s right-wing Junts or the left-wing ERC—but it was the PSC (the Catalan wing of Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist party) who emerged as the largest force. They were able to form a minority government with the support of ERC and the left-wing Comuns.
The procés, as the push for Catalan independence came to be known, had seemingly come to an end.
But amid this larger shift, a new party, Aliança Catalana (Catalan Alliance, AC), entered the Catalan Parliament for the first time. Despite winning only two of the region’s 135 seats in 2024, this new force is now exerting huge influence over Catalunya’s—and by extension Spain’s—political landscape.
Post-procés Politics
Aliança Catalana is a far-right, pro-independence and explicitly anti-immigration party. It is led by Sílvia Orriols, the mayor of Ripoll, a town of just over 10,000 inhabitants.
With just 1.5% of parliamentary representation, AC might look marginal, but it is not. Its emergence signals a reconfiguration of Catalan politics after the procés, and it is transforming the nationalist right, a political space traditionally dominated by Junts.
For years, Catalan parliamentary politics was effectively a single-issue affair. Independence eclipsed almost everything else, including the distinction between left and right, which meant parties like Junts and ERC competed mainly for leadership within the same pro-independence bloc.
As the procés lost momentum—with neither unilateral independence or a negotiated referendum to show for it—new issues have entered the agenda. Immigration, security and identity now dictate Catalan politics, much like in Spain and other parts of Europe.
In this new panorama, AC presents itself as a “purer” nationalist option: unambiguously pro-independence, uncompromising toward the Spanish state, and openly hostile to immigration, especially by Muslims. It has proposed an official ban on face coverings, and allegedly blocked migrants from accessing public services in Ripoll.
Recent polling shows just how popular AC’s message has been. The latest survey from Catalunya’s Center for Opinion Studies places AC tied with Junts in seats. Whether these figures materialize at the next elections or not, the message is clear: AC is no longer a marginal player.
Junts’ Problem: Reputation and Competition
All political parties compete for votes within an ideological space, typically defined as a position the left-right axis. Their electoral strength depends mainly on their reputation and credibility among voters in their space, not specific policy proposals.
When a new party offers a clearer or more convincing message, it can push an established party out of its space. This is what is happening to Junts, and to countless other mainstream political parties.
After more than a decade governing Catalunya and leading the procés, Junts now finds itself in opposition in Barcelona and Madrid. In many ways it has failed; independence was not achieved, and in 2023 it supported Pedro Sánchez’s reappointment as PM in exchange for political amnesty.
AC capitalizes directly on post-procés frustration. It presents itself as a new force that is opposed to traditional nationalist parties like ERC and Junts, but also unwilling to negotiate with Madrid.
Junts’ recent strategy suggests it is feeling the pressure. In October 2025, it “broke off” relations with Pedro Sánchez’s ruling PSOE, but its support had been wavering for some time. Junts’ move was therefore not a sudden policy shift, but an attempt to slow AC’s advance by appearing tougher, more confrontational and more skeptical of negotiation with Madrid.
However, by moving rightwards, particularly on immigration, Junts may legitimize the agenda of the very party threatening to replace it.
The rise of AC fits the broader international trend of right-wing authoritarian and radical right forces becoming consolidated. A similar story is playing out in Spanish national politics, where far-right party Vox has reshaped competition and continues to push the PP (People’s Party) further right. In Catalunya, AC is playing a similar role to Vox; it is challenging the hegemony of a traditional, established right-wing party.
AC is not identical to Vox. It is less conservative on some issues and rooted in a distinct nationalist tradition, but ideologically it belongs to the radical right: exclusionary, nativist and hostile to pluralism.
Immigration plays a central role in this shift—as it becomes more salient, right-wing parties feel increasingly comfortable setting the terms of debate, while the left struggles to respond without internal tension. Catalunya is no exception.
Junts’ Problem Is the Spanish Government’s Problem
Spain’s current government rests on a fragile parliamentary equilibrium. The PSOE governs with Sumar, a leftist force that, despite its 2023 electoral success (3 million votes and 31 seats), is structurally weak. A hastily assembled electoral coalition of more than a dozen parties, it has limited territorial roots and got poor results in the regional and European 2024 elections.
The PSOE itself is also under strain, facing multiple scandals affecting PM Pedro Sánchez and his inner circle.
With no new budget passed since 2022, the government survives largely because there is no viable parliamentary alternative. Additionally, it relies on the support of regionalist and pro-independence parties, including Junts, who would all be worse off under the most likely alternative: a PP-Vox coalition that would consolidate power in Madrid.
Junts’ support for Sánchez’s government makes it a kingmaker—it would have to approve any vote of no confidence or motion of censure.
Pressure from AC revives Junts’ dilemma from 2023. Supporting a PSOE-Sumar government reinforces its image as a collaborator with Madrid, but aligning with the PP and Vox would be the same or worse. In both cases, AC benefits from presenting itself as the only consistent nationalist option on the right.
A New Phase
As support for the procés fades, Junts’ area of political competition is shifting. It is no longer vying to lead the independence movement, but to represent the Catalan nationalist right. This explains its move toward tougher rhetoric on immigration and identity, which risks normalizing the far right and reshaping Catalan politics for good.
For now, institutions remain stable. The left holds a narrow majority in the Catalan Parliament, and it is important to remember opinion polls are not election results. But the terrain is shifting.
AC’s parliamentary debut signals the possible start of a new phase. While the procés defined Catalunya for a decade, its aftermath may be marked by an altogether different challenge: the rise of a nationalist far right, which could upend Spanish politics.
Asbel Bohigues, Profesor de Ciencia Política, Universitat de València
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
