This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez with representatives of the State Security Forces and Corps at the Tarajal border (Ceuta). Pool Moncloa / Borja Puig de la Bellacasa. Tarajal border, Ceuta.
The crisis in Ceuta has put Pedro Sánchez’s government on the defensive, just as Spain’s political actors return from the summer break. Weeks after the crisis began, the situation remains unresolved. Of the estimated 80,000 migrants who entered Ceuta in late July, 5,482 remain.
Fierce debate has raged over the government’s handling of the crisis, with protests across the country, a deepening culture war, and violent attacks on migrants in Ceuta—some allegedly carried out by Spanish soldiers.
Within Spain, the crisis has barely left the headlines for the last seven weeks. While a permanent solution has yet to emerge, one thing is clear: the government has missed a vital chance to frame the issue of migration on its own terms.
This year’s mass regularisation saw Sánchez taking the initiative. In doing so, he cast himself—and by extension Spain—as a champion of human rights, one who pushes back against Europe’s prevailing anti-migrant sentiment, placing the economy and inclusion at the center of the debate.
After Ceuta, that momentum has been reversed. As Spain approaches an election year, the crisis has given the conservative People’s Party (PP) and, above all, the far-right Vox more room to set the agenda.
A Missed Chance
Setting the political agenda is one of the main advantages of being in government. Ruling parties can choose which issues to prioritize, and define the terms on which they are discussed.
Back in January, some saw the mass migrant regularization as bold, while others saw it as opportunistic. Either way, it gave the PSOE, Sánchez’s Socialist Party, the upper hand. By placing the economy and the inclusion of migrants at the center of the discussion, the government was shaping the debate through a policy of its own.
Now, Ceuta has shifted the focus towards insecurity and deportations. Spain’s far right party Vox describes the crisis as an “invasion”, framing migration in terms that suit its own goals. Immigration is central to Vox’s discourse: it helps define its political identity and gives it prominence on the national stage.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, accompanied by Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, greets representatives of the State Security Forces and Corps at the Tarajal border (Ceuta). Moncloa Pool.
The government took more than a month to properly respond to the Ceuta crisis, a delay spanning the August holiday period that gave other actors room to firmly establish their own version of events. As the crisis became entrenched, Sánchez increasingly found himself responding to an agenda set by others.
This delay also matters hugely for the thousands of migrants caught in legal limbo in Ceuta, whose situation remains unresolved while they sleep in tents and on the street.
The government did have other options. Though Sánchez visited Ceuta just after the incident, he and his ministers could have gone further by cutting short their holidays, holding an emergency cabinet meeting in Ceuta, or even declaring a “situation of interest to national security” sooner.
With so much at stake, taking any kind of initiative would have been better than the political inaction that followed. Instead, the PSOE handed the right and far right a chance to define the crisis and set the terms of the debate.
A Hostile International Context
Tensions with Morocco are a recurring feature of Spanish politics. The crisis in Ceuta has revived memories of 2021, when a mass border crossing coincided with a diplomatic dispute over Spain’s decision to provide medical treatment to Brahim Ghali. Ghali leads the Polisario Front, which seeks independence for Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony currently under Moroccan occupation.
In 2022, Sánchez shifted Spain’s position towards support for Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara, helping to repair relations with Rabat.
The question of Spanish citizenship for Sahrawis has added another sensitive issue. On September 10, Congress approved a bill promoted by the left-wing party Sumar to grant citizenship for Sahrawis born under Spanish administration, with the PP abstaining and Vox voting against. The proposal must still pass through the Senate.
For Sánchez, these debates come at a difficult moment abroad. The international arena had been a source of political strength for both the prime minister and his government, but the Ceuta crisis could undo the international diplomatic gains of recent years.
On August 1, 22 EU leaders signed a letter calling for an urgent coordinated response to the Ceuta crisis, warning that large-scale regularization could encourage irregular migration. Soon after, Italy introduced checks on non-EU travelers arriving from Spain, prompting Madrid to respond in kind.
The political consequences of the crisis are nevertheless being felt most directly at home. Ceuta has interrupted the momentum created by regularization, and brought relations with Morocco back to the center of the national debate.
With elections on the horizon, the combined effect is a huge setback for Sánchez.
Asbel Bohigues, Profesor de Ciencia Política, Universitat de València
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
