The current standings are: CiU – 48; PSC – 37; ERC – 21; PP – 14; ICV –12; Ciutadans – 3; the government of the past four years has been a coalition of the PSC, ERC and ICV. A poll carried out by the Spanish Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas published on November 12th predicted the following outcome: CiU – 59; PSC – 33; ERC – 15/16; PP – 14; ICV – 11; Ciutadans – 3. If this was the result of the election, CiU could have the same number of seats as the combined members of the current coalition government (depending on how many seats ERC wins).
The candidates for the two main parties, CiU and PSC, are the same as in the last elections, held on November 1st, 2006.
1. Artur Mas – could it be third time lucky for Artur Mas? He has stood for the federation party of Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya and Unió Democratica de Catalunya (known collectively as Convergència i Unió, or CiU) in the past two Generalitat elections and, despite winning the largest number of seats up for grabs in the Catalan parliament both times, he lacked an absolute majority, opening the way for his left-wing opponents (PSC, ERC and ICV) to form successive coalition governments. The polls are all saying, and have been for some time, that CiU will yet again get the most seats but is unlikely to get an absolute majority. Depending how close Mas gets his party to the 68 seats required for a majority, he may seek to govern with a minority, picking and choosing support from other parties as and when needed; or look to create a coalition either with the left-wing, independence-supporting ERC or the right-wing, conservative PP, which are likely to be the third and fourth parties when the votes are counted. They are at opposite ends of the political spectrum and each are spending a good part of their campaign criticising the possibility of Mas siding with the other; the recent CIS poll found a notable preference for a CiU-ERC partnership (21 percent) rather than one with the PP (13 percent). CiU is a nationalist Catalan party but hasn’t committed itself to any decisive moves towards independence (such as a referendum or unilateral declaration) if it wins the election.
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